The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. <> The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don’t–and, most importantly, can’t–know. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. endobj Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate, “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. . (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility ebook epub/pdf/mobi/azw3. Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. %���� “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. This site does not store any files on its server. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ The book has made me think in a very abstract way in looking at past events that happened and trying to work out if we could PDF | On Feb 1, 2008, Gene Callahan published Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable | Find, read and … x��]s�6�=3��7� ��G'�ۉ��\�\�>d� [���%��\_��a��zs�D$��~����~s���g�ޝ������*�zr���?l�8����>��������n���ޟgg�oߜ\�LJQ�����72+��d֖�(�LBv����"��?>�}�u��d��z�惞���7J���*%�FO��J%�:{Z�}��?�ݑ� ��]�����_g2X�?�Ȳu�af�����,;�|�����Yq����6��w�g9c\��J���Z��e�*����ݭ�f���s5���l ?��z�-�粝}��٫~��� ���H�U!�e�e��_g?f�Y�(�Y8c���V�2_����l������Q�Z" { ��=�7@� �8�n��������>����y�沘m53��y�ӯ�N.��j&`^����E�sT�c;Q�#��RȈ��x�r���q� ��L����R�J4�Mrl�E��^�ƪZ��w��M)���V�>�xPwZo�U^:%������R��I�{`j2mjՄ���vR�_�ͨ�ΫYʉ�v�^�{;{Z���ՏZA�w�t��G������&�>>m4�5���H1���Gj��rҿ�R����� nk�4��/`g�:���0�r��U�_���|y�FY����hh��4���oٓT[��`r�c�DOK����`wz�d�~ҳ���m�ϷS�Ej*��x���Ub���^ѵ��B���a��7���_�7��w`.
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